Oct. 29--At the same hour this morning that the government said the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, Kansas City area business leaders heard that the regional economy is in for a long, slow recovery.

Frank Lenk, chief economist at the Mid-America Regional Council, split his annual economic outlook into two forecasts -- both calling for a regional growth rate hovering around 2 percent until 2011.

His better- and worse-case scenarios both predicted that the area's economy would improve faster than the nation's.

That's because the 3.5 percent third-quarter jump in the national gross domestic product was pumped up by stimulus plan spending, such as the Cash for Clunkers and first-time home buyers' tax credit programs. The annual growth rate nationally until mid 2010 is expected to be about 2 percent.

Lenk predicted at the breakfast sponsored by the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce that the regional gross domestic product will improve by about 2.4 percent under his more favorable forecast.

If national recovery takes longer, Kansas City's economy could improve by a larger percentage, compared to national GDP growth, but the recovery path will extend longer, he said.

Unfortunately, Lenk reminded chamber members that job growth will lag overall economic recovery. The region will lose an estimated 55,000 payroll jobs in this recession -- far more than the 30,000-job loss he forecast last year.

Lenk said his more positive forecast indicates it is likely to be 2012 before the region regains the jobs lost, and it would be 2013 under the slower-growth scenario.

| Diane Stafford, stafford@kcstar.com

To see more of The Kansas City Star, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.kansascity.com.

Copyright (c) 2009, The Kansas City Star, Mo.

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.

<< -- 10/30/2009>>