Oct. 11--It may be difficult to see now, here in the maelstrom following the announcement of the Dell plant closing and the loss of 900 jobs, but the city of Winston-Salem, indeed the Triad, may come out smelling like a rose.

This contrarian notion, already being whispered about, hinges on some critically important assumptions.

The first is that, yes, the incentives contract with Dell, the "Agreement for Job Creation and Economic Development for Winston-Salem and Forsyth County, North Carolina," between Dell and the city, the county, the Millennium Fund, the Forsyth County Development Fund, and others, is ironclad and that the total of some $26 million given to Dell will be returned.

"It's a very tight agreement," Mayor Allen Joines said Thursday. "Dell said, yes, they will absolutely honor it."

The second assumption is that the vision of the Triad as an aerotropolis, the new-age economic development term for a large concentration of companies with air-transport-related enterprises around an airport, will gain traction. The FedEx hub at Piedmont Triad International Airport is the linchpin. Dell's decision to come to the Triad in 2004 was heavily influenced by the construction of the FedEx hub. More companies that depend on daily air transportation of their products were expected to follow by now, but the recession intervened.

So, if indeed Dell keeps its word and returns 100 percent of the incentive money -- which is required within 30 days of the plant closing in January -- and FedEx becomes fully operational and more companies are lured here, the departure of Dell may not smart for all that long. Granted, the loss of 900 jobs is a tragedy for a lot of families struggling in the weak economy. But these semi-skilled workers now represent a ready work force for companies that want to relocate. And we hope business improvement in the fourth quarter will create new local jobs for some of the displaced workers.

As for the Dell plant, it is a state-of-the-art clean manufacturing facility that can be adapted for a number of applications, according to Joines. And in the meantime, the city and county will continue to collect about $1.1 million in annual property tax payments from Dell.

In addition, 90 acres of open land adjacent to the plant, which Dell acquired for expansion, now reverts to the city and is estimated to be worth at least $3 million, according to Joines. Both the returned incentives money and the available acreage give the city an immediate edge for attracting new high-tech companies.

Because Dell chose to close the plant now, before it reached the five-year threshold, the incentives payback is 100 percent. If it had lasted just six years, the payback percentage would have dropped to 50 percent.

Given the direction of consumer preferences in computers and technology, which has always been difficult to predict, the scenario may have been much worse. The decline of the desktop computer could have happened much sooner. We forget that we had a large high-tech company operating for almost five years employing hundreds of local workers and paying millions in property taxes each year.

"Because Dell has already paid millions in property taxes," Councilman Dan Besse wrote to his constituents last week, "this means that our city will receive a net benefit of millions of dollars over and above our investment."

Still, the Dell closing will no doubt reignite the anti-incentives movement. There will be post-mortem discussions about the level of incentives granted Dell and the efficacy of such incentives to business. Dell will become a rallying cry against incentives. In our view, they are part of the world we live in, or the one we want to live in.

In 2004, Dell was the answer to the rapidly declining manufacturing sector in North Carolina. A computer company that used customized assembly and quick delivery to distinguish its brand seemed perfect as an anchor for our vision of a transformed hub of high-tech companies employing educated workers and paying good wages.

Perhaps it was a siren, but we have survived the rocks. In time, we may come to see it as a beneficial experience.

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